长江经济带绿色发展水平测度及时空演化特征

Research on Green Development Level Measurement and Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

文章构建长江经济带绿色发展指数评价体系,借助全局主成分分析法、空间自相关模型、地理探测器等计量模型,测算2008—2018年长江经济带绿色发展指数的时空分异特征及驱动因素。结果表明:长江经济带绿色发展水平不断提升,变化趋势呈现出稳定上升—平稳过渡—稳定上升三个阶段,具体表现为下游>中游>上游的空间格局;长江经济带上中下游之间存在显著的产业梯度和要素禀赋差异,产业能级沿长江流向呈递增趋势,要素丰裕度则沿长江流向递减;地区间绿色发展水平存在着正向的空间相关性,具有空间溢出效应,在各地区呈现出“大连片、小散落”的集聚类型,但是这种空间相关性正在逐渐减弱;经济发展状况、产业结构高级化、环境规制是长江经济带绿色发展的高作用力影响因子,驱动要素实现了双因子增强。

This paper constructs the evaluation system of the green development index of the Yangtze River economic belt,and calculates the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics and driving factors of the green development in⁃dex of the Yangtze River economic belt from 2008 to 2018 with the help of global principal component analysis,spatial au⁃tocorrelation model,geographic detector,and other econometric models.The results show that the green development lev⁃el of the Yangtze River economic belt continues to improve,and the change trend presents three stages:stable rise,stable transition,and stable rise,which is embodied in the spatial pattern of downstream>midstream>upstream;there is a sig⁃nificant difference in industrial gradient factor endowment between the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yangtze River economic belt.The industrial energy level increases along the Yangtze River,and the factor abundance decreases along the Yangtze River;there is a positive spatial correlation between regional green development levels,which has a spa⁃tial spillover effect.It presents a agglomeration type of"large connection and small dispersion"in various regions,but this spatial correlation is gradually weakening;economic development,advanced industrial structure,and environmental regu⁃lation are the high force influencing factors for the green development of the Yangtze River economic belt,and the driving factors have been enhanced by two factors.