能源消费转型对绿色经济增长的门槛效应——基于技术驱动路径的研究

Threshold effect of energy consum ption transition on green economic growth: Research based on technology-driven path

以9个能源消费大国2001—2018年的数据为样本,使用Super-SBM模型构建Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数测算样本国家的绿色经济增长水平,并基于面板门槛回归,审查不同技术进步路径下能源消费结构转型与绿色经济增长之间的关系。实证结果表明:(1)在现有技术条件下,能源消费结构转型对绿色经济增长的影响呈倒"N"型,即只有在一定范围内的能源消费转型程度才能促进绿色经济增长;(2)在能源消费结构转型过程中,提高技术,尤其是能够推动技术前沿的新兴技术,能够有效的提高绿色经济增长水平;(3)若大量的技术资源没有用于研发新兴技术,而是用于改善、维护已有的技术设备,则不利于在能源消费转型过程中绿色经济增长的提升。

Uuse data from nine large energy-consuming countries from 2001-2018 as a sample, construct the Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML) index using the Super-SBM model to measure the level of green economic growth in the sample countries, and examine the relationship between energy consumption structural transformation and green economic growth under different technological progress paths based on panel threshold regression. The relationship is examined based on a panel threshold regression. The empirical results show that:(1)under the existing technology, the impact of energy consumption transformation on green economic growth is inverse “N” shape, i. e., only a certain extent of energy consumption transformation can promote green economic growth.(2)In the process of energy consumption structural transformation, improving technology, especially the emerging technology that can promote the frontier of technology, can effectively improve the level of green economic growth.(3)If a large amount of technological resources are not spent on research and development of emerging technologies, but on improving and maintaining the existing technological equipment, it is not conducive to the enhancement of green economic growth in the process of energy consumption transition.