“一带一路”沿线国家的金融发展水平测度研究

Research on the Measurement of the Financial Development Level of Countries Along the “One Belt and One Road”

"一带一路"沿线国家的金融发展对加快"一带一路"建设有着重要的意义。本文重新界定了金融发展的概念,从金融发展环境、规模、深度和效率四个方面构建金融发展指标体系,本文通过D-S证据理论将主观和客观赋权相结合,得出2013-2017年沿线57个国家的金融发展水平的综合得分,然后从时间和空间来分析其演变趋势。结果发现(1)保险密度、法律环境、中央银行资产占GDP的比重、政治环境、流动负债占GDP的比重对金融发展水平的影响较大;(2)沿线国家的金融发展水平存在右偏,且国家间的差异存在逐渐缩小的趋势;(3)金融发展水平较高的国家主要集中于欧洲,其次是东南亚、中国和南非,此外巴基斯坦和埃及应该加大对金融发展环境相关政策的完善,同时埃及的金融发展效率也有待提高。

The financial development of the countries along the“Belt and Road”is of great significance to accelerating the construction of the“Belt and Road”.This chapter redefines the concept of financial development and constructs a financial development indicator system from four aspects:financial development environment,scale,depth and efficiency.This chapter uses the D-S evidence synthesis theory to combine subjective and objective weighting to obtain a comprehensive score of the financial development level of 57 countries along the route from 2013 to 2017,and then analyze its evolution trend from time and space.The results found that(1)insurance density,legal environment,the ratio of central bank assets to GDP,political environment,and current liabilities to GDP have a greater impact on the level of financial development;(2)the level of financial development of countries along the route is biased to the right.And the differences between countries are gradually narrowing;(3)Countries with high levels of financial development are mainly concentrated in Europe,followed by Southeast Asia,China and South Africa.In addition,Pakistan and Egypt should increase the improvement of policies related to the financial development environment.At the same time,Egypt’s financial development efficiency also needs to be improved.