生计资本视角下农户生计策略变动及影响因素研究——基于CFPS四期追踪数据

The changes of farmers’livelihood strategies and the influencing factors from the perspective of the livelihood capital:Based on the four periods of the CFPS tracking data

农户的生计策略在乡村振兴进程中正在和即将发生变化。只有对农户生计策略的变化做出正确的判断,才能够有效引导农户生计行为,破除乡村建设行动的各种阻力。基于可持续生计理论,利用CFPS四期追踪数据,运用转移概率矩阵和Logit回归模型,分析农户生计策略变动及其影响因素,并运用分位数回归方法验证稳健性。结果表明,不同生计策略农户的生计资本结构存在差异,无论何种生计策略的农户,人力资本在5种资本中都最大。短期内多数农户选择维持原有生计策略,动态调整过程较慢,有土地转入的农户更倾向于选择非务工型生计策略。社会资本对农户趋务工型策略变动具有显著的正向影响,农户受教育年限和健康对生计策略变动具有正向影响。与东部地区农户相比,中西部地区农户更倾向于选择务工型生计策略。因此,应加大农村产业多样化的投入力度,促进农户策略转变速度;鼓励农民参与土地流转;建立健全农户参与农村基层社会治理机制,推动农户社会资本积累;扩大对农村教育与医疗的投入力度。

Farmers’livelihood strategies are changing and these changes will continue in the process of rural revitalization.Understanding the change of farmers’livelihood strategies is critical to effectively guide farmers’livelihood behaviors and to break the resistance of rural construction.Based on the four periods of the CFPS tracking data and the sustainable livelihood theory,and applying the transition probability matrix and the logit regression model,this paper analyzed the changes of farmers’livelihood strategies and its influencing factors,and examined its robustness by the quantile regression method.Results show that a big difference exists among the livelihood capital structures of farmers with different types of livelihood strategies.Among the five types of capitals,human capital is the largest,no matter what kind of livelihood strategy is.Most farmers choose to maintain the original livelihood strategy in the short term with slow dynamic adjustment.Farmers with land transfer tend to adopt a livelihood strategy of no off-farm employment.Social capital,accompanied by farmers’years of schooling and health status,has a significant positive impact on farmers’adoption of opt for off-farm employment strategy.Compared with farmers in the eastern region,farmers in the central and western regions are more inclined to adopt the work-oriented livelihood strategy.Therefore,the government should increase the investment in diversifying rural industries to promote the speed of transformation of farmers’strategies and encourage farmers to participate in land transfer.In addition,to promote farmers’social capital accumulation,the government should establish and improve farmers’participation in rural grassroots social governance mechanism and expand the investment in rural education and medical care systems.