中国代际收入流动性及其教育的作用:变化趋势与政策取向

Intergenerational Income Mobility and the Role of Education in China:Changing Trends and Policy Orientations

借助代际收入弹性模型和分位数回归模型的双重测度,本研究对中国代际收入效应及教育作用进行了实证分析。研究发现,中国社会代际收入流动性整体提升,但代际间收入继承性明显;中国城乡代际收入流动性存在差异,城市高于农村;教育推动代际收入流动,但城镇大于农村;后致因素在个人经济地位实现过程中作用不断增强,2015年教育实现对父辈收入作用的反超,成为影响子辈收入获得的最主要因素;低收入和高收入阶层代际收入流动性较弱,社会固化程度较高;教育对不同群体收入获得的影响普遍正向,对低收入和高收入群体的作用更为明显。教育具有促进阶层跃升功能,但教育不是"唯一资本",而是"必要途径"。新时期发挥教育在推动代际收入流动中的作用,就要深刻理解教育与代际收入公平之间的关系并制定更加合理的公共教育政策。

By means of the intergenerational income elasticity model and the quantile regression model,this study empirically analyzes the intergenerational income effect and the role of education in China from 2004 to 2015.The results show that:the intergenerational income mobility of Chinese society has improved as a whole,but the intergenerational income inheritance is also obvious.There are differences in intergenerational income mobility between urban and rural areas in China,i.e.,urban mobility is higher than rural.The influence of education on the income mobility on the whole is positive,showing a wave-increasing trend,but the influence of urban is greater than that of rural.In 2015,the effect of education was reversed,which became the main factor affecting the income of children.Compared with other income groups,the intergenerational income mobility of the low-income group is the weakest,which affects the intergenerational income mobility of the whole society to a great extent.Education has the function of screening and promoting the class leap,but it is not the only way for people to achieve upward mobility.In order to play the role of education in promoting intergenerational income mobility in the new era,we should better understand the relationship between education and intergenerational income equity,and formulate more reasonable public education policies.