国家级新区如何促进地区经济增长——人口规模的扩张还是发展质量的提升

How National-level New Areas Promote Regional Economic Growth:Population Scale Expansion or Development Quality Improvement

本文基于2003-2018年中国279个地级市的面板数据,利用双重差分模型研究设立国家级新区如何促进地区经济增长,以及增长的动力源泉是人口规模的扩张还是发展质量的提升。研究发现:(1)设立国家级新区能显著促进地区GDP增长,而且GDP增长主要源于常住人口规模的扩张,而非人均GDP的增加,即国家级新区促进地区经济增长的动力主要源于人口规模的扩张而非发展质量的提升;(2)国家级新区的设立会产生人口虹吸效应和产业集聚效应,但并不能产生创新驱动效应,这刚好对应于研究结论;(3)异质性分析表明,经济发展基础、布局模式、空间尺度以及行政治理结构的不同会影响国家级新区建设成效。

Based on the panel data of 279 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018 and the method of difference in difference,this paper explores whether the driving force of National-level New Areas(NLNA)promoting regional economic growth is the expansion of population scale or the improvement of the quality of development.The main results are:(1)The establishment of NLNA significantly promotes regional GDP growth,and the GDP growth is mainly due to the expansion of the permanent resident population,rather than the increase in per capita GDP,that is,the driving force of NLNA promoting regional economic growth mainly comes from the expansion of population scale rather than the improvement of development quality;(2)The establishment of NLNA can produce population siphoning effects and industrial agglomeration effects,but not innovation-driven effects,which corresponds to the analysis conclusion;(3)The analysis of heterogeneity shows that differences in economic development foundation,layout mode,spatial scale,and administrative governance structure will affect the effectiveness of NLNA construction.