北京市东城区流感样病例与气象因素的相关性分析

Analysis of the relationship between influenza-like illness and meteorological factors in Dongcheng District,Beijing City

目的探讨北京市东城区流感样病例数与气象因素的相关性。方法收集北京市东城区2014—2018年流感样病例监测数据和同期的气象数据资料,采用Spearman秩相关、广义相加模型(GAM)研究流感样病例数与气象因素的关系。结果东城区的流感高峰季出现在冬春季,流感样病例数与日均温度、日均气压、日均风速和日均相对湿度均呈非线性相关。当日均气温低于6.00℃,日均气压高于101.00kPa,日均风速高于3.00m/s,日均相对湿度低于45.00%,流感样病例数呈增加趋势;日均气温、日均气压、日均风速在滞后4d时,日均相对湿度在滞后0d时,对流感样病例数影响最大;日均气温每降低1℃、日均气压每升高0.1kPa、日均风速每升高1m/s、日均相对湿度每降低1%,流感样病例数升高的百分比分别为4.02%、1.07%、1.59%、0.12%。结论日均气温、日均气压、日均风速和日均相对湿度是影响东城区流感样病例数的主要气象因素,且具有一定的滞后性,可以考虑纳入流感预警预测系统。

Objective To explore the relationship between influenza-like illness and meteorological factors in Dongcheng District,Beijing City.Methods Data of influenza-like illness and meteorological factors in Dongcheng District,Beijing City from 2014 to 2018 were collected.The relationship between influenza-like illness and meteorological factors were analyzed using the Spearman rank correlation and generalized additive model(GAM).Results The peak season of influenza in Dongcheng District occurred in winter and spring.Average daily temperature,average daily pressure,average daily wind speed and average daily relative humidity were non-linearly correlated with the number of influenza-like cases,when under the circumstance with average daily temperature below 6.00℃,average daily pressure above 101.00 kPa,the average daily wind speed above 3.00 m/s and average daily relative humidity below 45.00%,the number of influen za-like illners icreased.Average daily temperature,average daily pressure,average daily wind speed lagging for 4 days and average daily relative humidity lagging for 0 day showed the most significant influence on influenza-like illness.The number of influenza-like cases increased by 4.02%,1.07%,1.59%and 0.12%,respectively,when every 1℃decreased in average daily temperature,0.1 k Pa increased in average daily pressure,1m/s increased in average daily wind speed and 1%decreased in average daily relative humidity.Conclusion Meteorological factors,such as average daily temperature,average daily pressure,average daily wind speed and average daily relative humidity are tightly associated with influenza-like cases with certain lag in Dongcheng District.It is suggested to use these data in the early warning and prediction system of influenza.