考虑个体偏好的高铁旅客出行选择仿真研究

Simulation of Passenger Travel Choice in High-speed Railway Considering Personal Preferences

针对高铁旅客出行时的乘车选择行为问题,定量描述和分析了高速铁路旅客乘车选择的行为及特征。考虑旅客的主体偏好、出行偏好和承受偏好等,基于非集计离散模型构建个体偏好与列车特性因子的关联关系,并进一步构建一种考虑个体偏好的多变量旅客乘车选择效用模型,以旅客在京沪高铁北京-上海区间的乘车选择作为实例进行分析。运用SPSS结合2018年京沪高铁RP调查数据进行模型参数的标定,结果表明,年龄-票价、出行距离-票价、月收入-票价、费用来源-整点出发时刻是4组具有强关联性的个体偏好-列车特性组合,且旅客个体承受偏好中的月收入对乘车选择的影响最为明显,同时验证了上述模型可以更准确地评价旅客的个性化乘车选择行为,可为高速列车开行的优化设计提供理论基础。

Aiming at the problem of high-speed railway passengers’travel choice behavior,this paper quantitatively described and analyzed the behavior and characteristics of high-speed railway passengers’travel choice.A passenger boarding choice model with multiple variants based on personal preferences was then used to study passenger behavior in Beijing-shanghai selection of Jinhu high-speed railway.The parameters of the model were calibrated by SPSS based on the RP survey data.The results show that age/fare,travel distance/fare,monthly income/fare,and expenses source/hour of departure are four groups of strongly correlated individual preferences/train characteristics combination.Furthermore,the monthly income has the most significant impact on the boarding choice.And the utility model can accurately evaluate passenger boarding choice and provide theoretical basis for the design and optimization of high-speed train operation.