典型国家碳达峰碳中和进程中经济发展与能源消费的经验启示

Experience of Economic Development and Energy Consumption in the Process of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in Typical Countries

本文对典型国家碳达峰、碳中和进程中,经济社会发展和能源消费方面变化经验进行研究,特别对碳达峰时间及达峰时人口变化、经济发展、产业结构、能源消费,以及碳达峰后碳排放变化、能源消费变化等方面的特点和规律性进行分析。通过研究发现,碳排放峰值有一定波动性,达峰通常呈现为一段时间的峰值平台期。典型国家在碳达峰时,人口进入低速增长期,经济增速有放缓趋势,城镇化率达到较高水平,工业化基本完成,服务业在经济结构中占比高,人均碳排放的峰值通常早于碳排放总量峰值出现,在碳达峰后单位GDP能耗持续明显降低。

This paper studies the experience of economic and social development and energy consumption change in the process of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in typical countries,especially the characteristics and regularity of population change,economic development,industrial structure,energy consumption,carbon emission change and energy consumption change after carbon emissions peak.It is found that the peak value of carbon emission has a certain fluctuation,and the peak value usually presents a peak platform period.For typical countries,when the carbon peak is reached,the population enters a period of low-speed growth,the economic growth tends to slow down,the urbanization rate reaches a high level,the industrialization is basically completed,the service industry accounts for a high proportion in the economic structure,the peak of per capita carbon emissions usually appears earlier than the peak of total carbon emissions,and the energy consumption intensity continues to decrease significantly after the carb on peak.