能源价格波动、高能效资本动态累积与资本-能源替代关系

Energy price fluctuations,dynamic accumulation of energy-efficient capital and energy-capital substitutability

资本与能源之间的替代关系是节能减排政策制定过程中的重要参考因素.本文在数理演绎能源价格波动影响高能效资本动态累积内在机理的基础上,通过构建动态要素需求模型,探究资本与能源之间关系由短期互补向长期替代的转变机制.随后,基于1995-2018年中国30个省份面板数据进行实证研究,结果表明:1)在样本期内,我国资本存量的能源效率得以持续提升,年均增长率达9.25%.2)能源价格波动所产生的诱致性技术进步对新增资本能源效率的提升具有重要促进作用,其在样本期内的平均贡献为42.86%.3)外生技术进步率的年均值为6.2%,其对新增资本能源效率提升的贡献高达57.14%.4)资本与能源在短期内呈现互补关系,而长期内则转变为替代关系;能源价格波动所诱发的资本存量能效的提升在短期内减弱了资本与能源的互补关系,而在长期内增强了两者之间的替代关系.

Based on an in-depth analysis of the internal mechanism of energy price fluctuations impacting the dynamic accumulation of energy-efficient capital,this paper investigates the transformation process from the complementary relationship between capital and energy in the short-run to the substitutional relationship in the long-run by constructing a dynamic factor demand model.Then some empirical studies are conducted based on the panel data of 30 administrative provinces in China during 1995-2018,and the results indicate that:1) The energy efficiency of the capital stock increases continuously with its average annual growth rate at 9.25% over the whole study period.2) The energy price-induced technological change plays an important role in improving the energy efficiency of new capital;specifically,energy efficiency of new capital increases by 1.143% when energy price rise by 1%.3) The annual average rate of exogenous technological progress is 6.2%,and its contribution to the improvement of energy efficiency of new capital is as high as 57.14% over the study period.4) Capital and energy are complementary in the short-run but substitutional in the long-run;moreover,the improvement of energy efficiency of capital caused by energy price fluctuations weakens the complementarity between capital and energy in the short-run,while it strengthens the substitutional relationship between capital and energy in the long-run.