基于InVEST模型的海南岛产水量的时空变化研究

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Water Yield in Hainan Island Based on InVEST Model

通过InVEST模型对海南岛产水量的时空分布及影响因素特征展开了定量研究,结果表明:1)海南岛产水量均值在1995—2015年间呈现上升趋势,增幅为17%,在空间分布上呈现东中高和西南低的不均衡分布;在1995—2005年间海南岛产水量的冷热点区域分布较为零散,2005—2015年间显著集聚且扩大,最终形成沿东北—西南方向对称分布的格局;2)1995—2015年间海南岛经历了快速城市化的进程,居民点与工矿用地大幅增加,主要由林地和耕地转变而来,在各土地利用/覆被类型中,居民点与工矿用地的产水能力最强,林地的产水能力相对较低,但作为主要的土地类型其贡献了全岛产水总量的44.3%;3)情景分析表明,气候变化对产水量的影响远大于土地利用/覆被变化对产水量的影响,它是海南岛产水量的主要驱动力.

In our report,the InVEST model was used for the quantitative analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of water yield in Hainan Island and the influencing factors.The results showed as follow:(1)the average water yield in Hainan island shows an upward trend from 1995 to 2015,with an increase of 17%,and which shows an unbalanced spatial distribution with high in Middle East and low in Southwest,from 1995 to 2005,the distribution of cold and hot spots was scattered,from 2005 to 2015,it was significantly agglomerated and expanded,and finally formed a symmetrical distribution pattern in the northeast direction;(2)from 1995 to 2015,Hainan Island experienced a rapid urbanization process,the residential and industrial land,which was mainly transformed from woodland and farmland,increased significantly,the residential land have the strongest water yield capacity,the woodland is relatively low,which contributed 44.3%of the total water production;(3)the impact of climate change on water production is much greater than that of land use/cover change,which is the main driving force of water production in Hainan Island.