基于非合作型纳什均衡理论的中美汇率博弈与应对策略研究

A Study on the Exchange Rate Game Between China and The United States and The Countermeasures Based on The Theory of Non-cooperative Nash Equilibrium

本文基于汇率博弈的理论逻辑对中美汇率变动进行剖析,同时回顾了中日、中欧汇率以及美日、美欧汇率冲突,得出结论:(1)我国在经济开放的过程中,积累了大量外汇储备,国民经济长足发展,在汇率博弈中是成功的。中美贸易顺差,主要原因是国内低廉劳动力的成本优势;(2)国家的谈判力量是汇率博弈结果的重要影响因素,占有谈判优势的一方会"夺取"汇率主动;(3)非经济因素对汇率博弈有重要影响,在国际贸易问题上的积极斡旋,可使汇率博弈达到阶段性均衡,若贸易失衡存在,这种均衡难以长期稳定。为此,在人民币汇率博弈中,要表明我国遏制全球失衡协作和追求贸易基本平衡的立场,建立多元化的出口市场缓解汇率博弈压力,加快推进我国汇率市场化改革以及外汇管理体制改革的进程。

Based on the theoretical logic of exchange rate game,this paper mainly analyzes the exchange rate fluctua・tions between China and the United States.At the same time,review the exchange rate conflicts between China and Japan,Europe and the United States and Japan,and the United States and Europe,and concludes that:(1)In the process of economic opening,China has accumulated a large amount of foreign exchange reserves,and its national economy has developed rapidly.The strategy and tactics of exchange rate game are successful.The trade surplus between China and the United States is mainly due to the advantage of low domestic labor costs.(2)The negotiating power of the two coun・tries is an important factor affecting the outcome of the exchange rate game.If the two countries have equal power,the exchange rate will remain unchanged.If one party is dominant,the superior party will"seize"the initiative of the exchange rate.(3)Non-economic factors have an important impact on the exchange rate game.The active mediation on international trade issues can make the exchange rate game reach a periodic equilibrium.If the trade imbalance exists,such equilibrium is difficult to stabilize in the long run.Therefore,in the game of RMB exchange rate,China need to show that China's global imbalances cooperation and pursue trade balance position,to establish diversified export markets reduce the pressure on the currency game,we need to speed up the reform of China's marketization of exchange rate and foreign exchange management system reform process,keep the foreign exchange reserves diversification are consistent with the currency basket weights,stable currency value of the reserves.