货币国际化水平评估及影响因素分析

Evaluation of Currency Internationalization and Analysis of Influencing Factors

本文选择美元、英镑、日元、欧元、澳元、加拿大元、瑞士法郎和人民币等八种货币的三个货币职能代理变量,采用主成分分析法构建货币国际化水平测量指标,以衡量各种货币的国际化水平,并分析影响货币国际化的主要因素。研究表明:相较于其他货币,美元在国际货币体系中占有绝对的领先地位,人民币国际化程度近年来提升明显但依旧处于较低水平。总体上看,货币国际化水平主要与经济实力、实际利率、金融市场规模以及政治军事等因素相关,但货币国际化不同阶段的主要影响因素具有明显的异质性。

This paper selects three monetary function proxy variables of eight currencies, including US dollar, pound sterling, Japanese yen, euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and RMB, and uses principal component analysis to construct the measurement index of currency internationalization level, so as to measure the internationalization level of each currency and analyze the main factors influencing currency internationalization. The research shows that: compared with other currencies, the US dollar occupies an absolute leading position in the international monetary system, and the internationalization degree of RMB has improved significantly in recent years, but it is still at a low level. On the whole, the level of currency internationalization is mainly related to economic strength, real interest rate, financial market scale, political and military factors, but the main influencing factors of different stages of currency internationalization have obvious heterogeneity.