基于水雨情信息分类的桓仁水库旬径流预报方法研究

Study on ten-day runoff forecasting method of Huanren Reservoir based on water and rainfall information classification

旬径流受多种因素影响,变化规律复杂,单一的径流预报模型往往不能反映流域来水特点。基于此,提出了一种基于水雨情信息分类的旬径流预报方法,将预报时刻面临的水雨情分6种情况,针对不同的情况提出不同的预报方案,并对2000-2010年的8个典型旬进行了预报效果检验。计算结果表明,基于水雨情信息分类的旬径流预报方法预报效果较好,能够用于指导浑江桓仁水库日常调度。

Ten-day runoff is affected by many factors,and the variation law is complex. Usually,a single runoff forecasting model cannot reflect the characteristics of incoming water in the basin. Hence,a ten-day runoff forecasting method based on water and rain information classification is proposed. In this method,the water and rain conditions faced at the time of prediction are divided into six situations,and six different forecasting schemes are proposed for different situations. The prediction effect of eight typical ten-day periods from 2000 to 2010 is tested.The results show that the ten-day runoff forecasting method based on water and rain information classification is effective and can be used to guide the daily operation of Huanren Reservoir.