管理层语调操纵能预示财务舞弊风险吗?--基于MD&A前瞻性文本信息

Can Managers'Tone Management Predict the Financial Fraud Risk:Based on MD&A Forward-Looking Text Information

文章以2015—2019年沪深A股制造业上市公司为样本,基于印象管理理论,运用文本分析方法,实证检验了管理层语调操纵与财务舞弊风险的关系。研究发现:管理层语调操纵与财务舞弊风险显著正相关,管理层语调过度乐观可能预示着公司存在着较高的财务舞弊风险;研发投入负向调节管理层语调操纵与财务舞弊风险的关系。本文的结论为在构建财务舞弊识别模型时引入文本特征提供了理论依据,通过语调操纵预判财务舞弊风险,有助于辅助投资者决策,维护资本市场秩序。

Taking the data of A-share listed manufacturing companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2015 to 2019 as samples,this paper analyses the relationship between managers'tone management and financial fraud risk by using text analysis method based on the impression management theory.The result shows that:there is a significant positive correlation between managers'tone management and financial fraud risk.Excessively optimistic managers'tone may indicate that the company has high financial fraud risk.R&D investment can negatively regulate the relationship between managers'tone management and financial fraud risk.The conclusion of this paper provides a theoretical basis for the introduction of text characteristics in the construction of financial fraud identification model.It is helpful to assist investors in decision-making and maintain the capital market order by predicting the financial fraud risk through tone manipulation.