印太视域下美国-马尔代夫关系新变化

New Changes in U.S.-Maldives Relations from the Indo-Pacific Perspective

马尔代夫在印度洋及印太地区占据重要的战略位置。美国试图通过干预马尔代夫国内政治走向、加大经济援助、增强军事存在和扩大人文社会交流等手段,将其纳入到"印太战略"的整体规划中。美国对马尔代夫政策的调整明显出于地缘政治考量,旨在对冲中国在该国的政治、经济影响力,进而削弱中国在中印度洋的影响力。具体表现为:以马尔代夫为筹码,刺激和推动印度进一步与美国协调;制造地缘紧张局势,谋求扩大军事存在,进而强化美国在印度洋的主导优势。萨利赫政府迎合美国并试图"联美制华",有悖于马尔代夫的长远利益及"中立和不结盟"的外交传统。但未来美马进一步走近将受多重因素制约,马尔代夫的政策选择仍有不确定性;美印在对马政策上的协调与合作可能有所发展,但根本分歧不会消除。

The Maldives occupies an important strategic position in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific region.The U.S.is trying to integrate the Maldives into the overall planning of its"Indo-Pacific strategy"by interfering in the political development of,increasing its economic assistance to,strengthening its military presence in and expanding its social and cultural exchanges with the Maldives.The U.S.policy adjustment on the Maldives has clearly derived from its geopolitical considerations,in an attempt to hedge against China’s political and economic influence in the Maldives so as to undercut China’s influence in the Indian Ocean.However,multiple factors will keep the U.S.and the Maldives from getting closer to each other,as uncertainties remain in the Maldives’policy choice.Moreover,although the U.S.and India will further coordinate and cooperate in their policies on the Maldives,their fundamental differences will not be resolved.