白洋淀上游河流水文变化评价研究

Evaluation studies on river hydrological changes in upper reaches of Baiyangdian Lake

现有河道整体水文改变度三级评价及客观赋权法存在水文改变度与河流生态健康联系不足、容易忽略部分指标变化、不能全面体现综合评价对河流生态管理的作用等问题,本文以白洋淀上游唐河流域为例,利用Mann-Kendall突变检验法对中唐梅站1959—2016年日径流的水文变异情况进行了分析,基于改进RVA法,在充分考虑5组33个IHA指标与河流生态健康关联影响的基础上,通过二元比较法与CRITIC法相结合的方式计算各指标的综合权重,并通过改进的内梅罗法得到整体水文改变度。结果表明:年径流量趋势呈整体下降,突变点为1979年;唐河水文指标在4月、8月平均流量发生严重改变;通过改进RVA法的计算发现中唐梅站的整体水文改变度在权重系数α不同情况下,均属于中度改变。通过综合主客观赋权的方法考虑对水文情势合理分析,能够更加有效的结合IHA指标体现水文情势对河流生态的响应程度,研究成果将更加客观合理。

The existing three-level evaluation and objective weighting method for the overall hydrological change degree of the existing river course have problems insufficient connection between hydrological change degree and river ecological health,easto ignore some indicator changes,and inability to fully reflect the effect of comprehensive evaluation on river ecological management.his use Baiyangdian upstream Tang River Basin as an examplethe Mann-Kendall mutation test method to analyze the hydrological variation of the daily runoff at Zhongtangmei Station from 1959 to 2016.Based on the improved RVA method,5 groups of 33 IHA indicators and river ecological health were fully considered.On the basis of the correlation influence,the comprehensive weight of each index calculated by combining the binary comparison method and the CRITIC method,and the overall hydrological change degree obtained by the improved Nemero method.The annual runoff trend showed an overall decline,and the mutation point was 1979 he Tang River hydrological indicators changed severely in April and August in the average flowhe improved RVA calculation found that the overall hydrological change at Zhongtangmei StationThe weight coefficientαchange moderately in different situations.Considering the reasonable analysis of the hydrological situation through a comprehensive subjective and objective weighting method,it can be more effectively combined with IHA indicators to reflect the degree of hydrological response to river ecology,the research results more objective and reasonable.