人随产动还是产随人走?--基于中国数据的实证分析与检验

Do People Follow Industry or Do Industry Follow People?--Based on the Empirical Analysis and Test for China Data

基于中国31个省级行政区面板数据,使用动态GMM估计,实证分析了人才流动和产业发展之间的相互关系,并对细分数据样本两者之间关系的异质性进行了检验。研究发现:(1)相对于省际产业发展变化,省际间的就业变化波动更为明显;(2)中国总体数据样本呈现"人随产动"特征,高端二产和普通产业等细分数据样本均呈现人才流动和产业发展双向互促影响,高端三产则呈现"产随人走"特征;(3)高端二产(三产)就业和普通二产(三产)就业之间均存在着双向互促关系。在对策建议上,传统产业园区应走产城融合发展新路而非产城分割的老路;地方政府应根据发展阶段和特征精准吸引人才,并努力消除劳动力市场化流动的障碍;破除对特大城市人口实行严格行政管制举措,以更好发挥中国区域经济发展的龙头和带动作用。

Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China, this paper for empirically explore the relationship between talent flow and industrial development and tests the heterogeneity by using the breakdown data of samples using a dynamic GMM model.The findings of the research can be concluded as follows:(1)Compared with the changes of inter-provincial industrial development, the fluctuations of inter-provincial employment are more apparent.(2)China’s overall data show the characteristic of "people follow industry",and breakdown data of high-end secondary industries and general industries all show the mutually influence relationship between talent flow and industrial development, while high-end tertiary industries show the feature that "industry follow people".(3)There is a mutually influence relationship between employment of high-end tertiary industry and employment of general tertiary industry, as well as between employment of high-end secondary industry and employment of general secondary industry.The paper suggests that traditional industrial parks should follow the new development path of integration of industry and city rather than segmentation, and local governments should attract targeted talents based on the stage and characteristics of development, the local governments should remove barriers to the labor market mobility and eliminate the strict administrative control measures on the population of megacities, in order to give better play to the leading and driving role of China’s regional economic development.