经济政策不确定性、公司治理水平与房企去杠杆

The Uncertainties of Economic Policy,Corporate Governance and Deleveraging of Real Estate Enterprises

杠杆率过高和监管趋严促使房地产企业去杠杆势在必行。从经济政策不确定性这一视角出发,考察经济政策不确定性对房地产企业杠杆率的影响效果以及作用机制具有重要的理论与政策价值。研究发现:经济政策不确定性上升将会导致房地产企业整体杠杆率走低。进一步区分负债期限后发现,该抑制效应主要集中在降低企业短期杠杆率上,而对长期杠杆率并没有显著影响。融资约束程度在经济政策不确定性对企业短期杠杆的抑制过程中起部分中介效应。公司治理水平越高的企业,经济政策不确定性对短期杠杆率的抑制作用将会进一步加强,而对长期杠杆率水平的抑制作用则会相应削弱。因此,政府应尽量保持经济政策变更的稳定性,且在去杠杆政策时应考量企业杠杆率的结构性分化现象,切忌"一刀切"。

The excessive leverage ratio and stricter regulation make it imperative to reduce leverages of real estate enterprises.From the perspective of uncertain economic policy,it is of theoretical and policy significance to examine the effectiveness and mechanism of such policy uncertainty on the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises.The research finds that the increasing uncertainty of economic policy will decrease the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises.After further differentiating debt maturities,it is found that the restraining effect mainly focuses on reducing short-term leverage ratio,but displays no significant effect in the long-term.Moreover,the degree of financing constraint plays a partially mediating role in the restraining process of uncertain economic policy on short-term leverage.In addition,the higher the corporate governance level,the restraining effect of uncertain economic policy on short-term leverage ratio will be further strengthened,and the restraining effect on long-term leverage ratio will be correspondingly weakened.Therefore,the government should attempt to maintain the stability of economic policy adjustments,and the deleveraging policies should consider the structural differentiation of corporate leverage ratio,while avoiding the formulation of a"one size fits all"policy.