中国工业碳生产率的空间收敛性及其影响因素研究

Research on Spatial Convergence and Influencing Factors of China’s Industrial Carbon Productivity

基于2005-2019年中国30个省市区(西藏、港澳台除外)工业面板数据,利用包含非期望产出(CO2)的Shephard距离函数和Malmquist指数测算地区工业全要素碳生产率,分析其区域差异性,并采用σ收敛模型、绝对β收敛模型和条件β收敛模型考察中国工业碳生产率的空间收敛性。结果表明:中国工业碳生产率整体呈上升趋势,但存在较大的区域差异性;中国工业碳生产率存在显著的正向空间自相关;全国工业碳生产率不存在σ收敛,东、中部以及东北地区存在σ收敛,西部地区存在σ发散,全国及东、中、东北、西部地区均存在显著的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛;经济发展水平、人力资本以及城镇化对工业碳生产率提升有显著的正向作用,而工业化水平和工业能源结构对工业碳生产率提升起负向作用。

Based on the industrial panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2017, the paper uses the Shephard distance function including undesired output(CO2) and the Malmquist index to measure the regional industrial total factor carbon productivity and analyze its regional differences, and then uses σ The convergence model, absolute beta convergence model and conditional β convergence model to examine the spatial convergence of China’s industrial carbon productivity. The results show that: China’s overall industrial carbon productivity is on the rise, but there are large regional differences;China’s industrial carbon productivity has a significant positive spatial autocorrelation;there is no σ convergence in the national industrial carbon productivity, there is σ convergence in the eastern, northeastern and central regions, and σdivergence in the western region, and there is significant absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in the whole country and the eastern, central, northeastern and western regions;and the economic development level, human capital and urbanization have a significant positive role in improving industrial carbon productivity, while the industrialization level and industrial energy structure are not conducive to the improvement of industrial carbon productivity.