基于Logistic回归模型的北京市卫生总费用预测与发展阶段研究

Research on the Development Stage of Total Health Expenditure of Beijing Based on Logistic Regression Model

目的预测北京市卫生总费用发展阶段,为北京市卫生资源配置、卫生政策的制定和调整提供数据支撑。方法运用北京市2000—2017年来源法卫生总费用的相关数据,构建Logistic函数模型,对北京市卫生总费用发展趋势进行预测研究。结果2000—2017年,北京市卫生总费用从166.72亿元增长至2193.80亿元,年均增速为12.49%,北京市卫生总费用在2000—2014年处于渐增期,2014—2033年处于快速增长期,2033年以后处于缓增期。其发展的拐点年份大约为2024年,预测当年的卫生总费用实际值约为2276.44亿元左右。结论北京市卫生总费用增长较快,后期趋于平稳,应根据预测结果合理调控卫生总费用的发展。

Objective To predict the development trend of total health expenditure in Beijing,and to provide data support for health resource allocation and health policy formulation and adjustment in Beijing.Methods Relevant data were extracted from total health expenditure by source method in Beijing from 2000 to 2017.A logistic regression model was conducted to predict the development trend of total health expenditure in Beijing.Results From 2000 to 2017,total health expenditure in Beijing increased from 16.672 billion yuan to 219.38 billion yuan,with an avera-ge annual growth rate of 12.49%.It was in a period of gradual growth from 2000 to 2014,a period of rapid growth from 2014 to 2033,and a period of slow growth after 2033.The turning point of the development trend is about in 2024.It is predicted that the actual value of the total health expenditure in 2024 is about 227.644 billion yuan.Conclusion Total health expenditure in Beijing has increased rapidly and will become stable in the later period.The development of total health expenditure should be controlled reasonably according to the forecast results.