中国走出低生育率陷阱的难点与策略

Difficulties and Strategies for China to Get Out of the Trap of Low Fertility Rate

基于对低生育率陷阱基本概念和基本原理的再认识,针对中国是否已经进入低生育率陷阱的研究争论,通过人口普查、1%人口抽样调查和年度人口变动调查等数据,采用总和生育率、分孩次递进生育率等人口指标和模型,对相关政策或策略预期效果进行计算机仿真分析,文章得出以下几个基本结论:第一,2019年、2020年总和生育率和出生人口数下降标志着全面两孩政策“堆积”效果的基本结束,生育水平进一步下降的风险大增。同时,中国目前已经全面进入低生育率陷阱的争论也得到进一步证实。第二,中国低生育率陷阱的人口学、社会学和经济学影响因素不断强化,低生育率陷阱的运行机制已经形成。第三,单纯地取消生育政策难以扭转生育水平持续低迷,总和生育率仍将处于很低的水平,今后长期稳定在1.5以上的可能性很小。第四,只有确保育龄妇女1孩递进生育率超过0.95和2孩递进生育率超过0.8,中国未来育龄妇女总和生育率才能稳定在1.8左右,迫切需要提振1孩和2孩生育率。从目前的生育水平、结构特征、变动趋势和低生育率形成机制来看,这将是一个非常困难的目标。

Based on the re-understanding of the basic concepts and principles of the low fertility trap and the data of population census,1%population sampling survey and population change survey for each year,this paper focuses on the academic debate whether China has entered the low fertility trap,adopting the population indicators and models of sum fertility rate,child-by-child progressive fertility rate.Computer simulation analysis of related policies and the expected effects strategies reveals the following results.First,the decline of total fertility rate and birth population in 2019 and 2020 means the end of the“accumulation”effect of the two-child policy,and the risk of further decline in fertility is greatly increased.At present,China has fully entered the low fertility trap,and its characteristics have been further confirmed.Second,the demographic,sociological and economic influencing factors of China s low fertility trap have been continuously strengthened,and the operating mechanism of the low fertility trap has formed.Third,simply abolishing the fertility policy is difficult to reverse the continuous downturn of fertility level.The total fertility rate will remain at a very low level,and it is unlikely that it will remain stable above 1.5 for a long time in the future.Fourth,only by ensuring that the first child progression fertility rate of women of childbearing age exceeds 0.95 and the second child progression fertility rate exceeds 0.8,can China s total fertility rate of women of childbearing age stabilize at about 1.8 in the future.There is an urgent need to boost the first child and the second child fertility rates.Judging from the current fertility level,structural characteristics,change trend,and the formation mechanism of low fertility rate,this will be a very difficult goal.