人口结构对中国贸易收支的影响研究——基于空间计量模型的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Population Structure on Chinese Trade Balance——Based on Spatial Econometric Models

通过构建开放经济下两阶段世代交叠模型,考察中国人口老龄化、自然增长率、人口流动对贸易收支的影响。基于2004—2018年中国省级面板数据,从静态、动态两种空间面板模型,SDM、SAR、SEM三种空间计量方法进行实证检验。研究发现:人口老龄化加深、人口自然增长率提高与流动人口增加会导致中国贸易顺差进一步收窄;中国贸易收支存在空间相关性,经济发展水平相近省份的贸易收支存在正向空间溢出效应与聚集效应,地理相邻省份的贸易收支存在负向空间溢出效应与虹吸效应;中国贸易顺差存在历史惯性,动态空间面板模型拟合结果优于静态空间回归结果。因此,应正视人口结构对贸易收支的影响,积极应对贸易顺差缩小,刺激国内消费需求,促进外贸出口转型与优化外贸区域结构布局。

This article examines the impact of Chinese population aging,natural growth rate,and population mobility on trade balance by constructing a two-stage generational overlap model under an open economy. This paper uses Chinese provincial panel data from 2004 to 2018 to conduct an empirical analysis with the static and the dynamic spatial panel models,and the three spatial measurement methods of SDM,SAR and SEM. The study found that: firstly,the deepening of population aging,the increase of natural population growth rate and the increase of floating population will decrease Chinese trade surplus. Secondly,Chinese trade balance is spatially correlated. The trade balance of provinces with similar economic development has a positive spatial spillover effect and aggregation effect. The trade balance of geographically adjacent provinces has a negative spatial spillover effect and siphon effect. Thirdly,Chinese trade surplus has historical inertia. The dynamic spatial panel model fitting results are better than the static spatial regression results. Therefore,we should face up to the impact of population structure on trade balance,actively respond to the shrinking trade surplus,stimulate domestic consumer demand,promote the transformation of foreign trade exports and optimize the regional structure of foreign trade.