中国入境旅游发展与生态环境关系研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线和Granger因果检验

Relationship between the inbound tourism development and ecological environment in China:A study based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve and Granger causality test

入境旅游作为外汇收入的主要来源,是中国旅游业的重要组成部分,随着其飞速发展,相关环境问题也随之而来。基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说理论,通过尝试构建国际旅游收入、入境旅游人次和生态足迹间的向量自回归(VAR)模型,使用Stata 15.1软件对中国1990—2017年的入境旅游和生态足迹数据进行协整检验和Granger因果检验,并对二者关系进行实证分析。研究表明:较长周期内,中国入境旅游与生态环境存在格兰杰因果相互作用关系,生态环境是入境旅游发展重要前提和保障,入境旅游的发展也促进了对生态环境的重视和保护。建议国家或地方政府在制定旅游发展政策时,统筹考虑旅游发展和生态环境保护,在大力扶持旅游产业同时加大对生态治理改善投入,实现旅游可持续发展。

With the rapid development of China s inbound tourism,as the main source of foreign exchange income and an important part of tourism industry,related environmental problems also coexist.Based on Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)hypothesis,a VAR model is established for the receipt of international tourism,number of international tourism arrivals and ecological footprint according to the time series data of China during the period of 1990—2017.The aim of this study is to make an empirical analysis of the relationship between inbound tourism development and the ecological environment by cointegration test and Granger causality test via Stata 15.1.The results from the tests revealed that the inbound tourism and the ecological environment in China have a Granger causal interactive relationship in a long period of time.The ecological environment is an important prerequisite and guarantee for the development of inbound tourism,at the same time,the development of inbound tourism also promotes the importance and protection of the ecological environment.This paper recommends that the national or local government,when formulating tourism development policies,should take overall consideration of the development of inbound tourism and the protection of ecological environment,and increase the investment in ecological governance and improvement while vigorously supporting the development of inbound tourism and so as to achieve sustainable development in tourism.