全域旅游背景下产业融合发展水平和趋势研究--基于北部湾城市群面板数据

Research on the level and trend of industrial integration development under the background of global tourism——Based on the Beibu Gulf city cluster panel data

北部湾城市群旅游发展过程中存在发展不协调、资源配置缓慢、各行政区封闭保守、过分依赖优惠政策等一系列问题。文章基于北部湾城市群2015~2019年统计年鉴数据深挖旅游业和其他产业的融合关系及其影响因素,并利用熵值法对影响因素进行赋权,得出当前北部湾城市群各行业发展规模水平,同时加权计算产业协同发展的融合度指标来描述整体融合水平,基于广义估计方程GEE模型预测未来产业融合趋势,以此探究产业融合度与相应地区的旅游产业发展水平之间的关系,针对性地提出一些建设性意见,减少实际应用风险,力求推动该地区全产业协调发展和地区旅游,带动地方经济发展。

There are a series of problems in the process of tourism development in Beibu Gulf city agglomeration,such as uncoordinated development,slow resource allocation,closed and conservative administrative regions and over-reliance on preferential policies.Based on the Beibu Gulf city statistical yearbook data from 2015 to 2019,the thesis dig deeper into the relationship between the tourism industry and other industries and its influencing factors,and entropy value method is used to analyse the influencing factors of empowerment,it is concluded that the current Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration industry development scale level,at the same time weighted industry coordinated development of alignment index to describe the overall fusion level;the future industrial convergence trend is predicted based on GEE model of generalized estimation equation.In order to explore the relationship between industrial integration and the development level of tourism industry in the corresponding regions,put forward some constructive opinions to reduce practical application risks,and strive to promote the coordinated development of the whole industry and regional tourism in the region,and drive the local economic development.