跨越中等收入陷阱因素的实证分析及国际比较

An empirical analysis of the factors affecting middle-income trap and international comparison

改革开放以来,中国经济一度高速增长。近年来,全球经济增长低迷,外需减弱,国内人口红利逐渐消失,经济结构改革也进入攻坚阶段,新常态下我国是否能够继续保持经济平稳增长而成功跨越中等收入陷阱备受瞩目。文章基于二元选择模型和固定效应模型,选取36个国家的数据对跨越中等收入陷阱的因素进行了实证分析,最后结合国际经验对新常态下我国经济跨越中等收入陷阱提出了一些政策建议。

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has experienced rapid growth.In recent years, global economic growth has been sluggish, external demand has weakened, domestic demographic dividends have gradually disappeared, and economic structural reform has also entered a critical stage.Under the new normal, whether our country’s economy can continue to maintain steady growth and successfully overcome the middle-income trap has attracted much attention.Based on the dual choice model and the fixed effect model, this paper selects 36 countries’ data to conduct an empirical analysis of the factors that cross the middle-income trap.Finally, combined with international experience, it puts forward some policy recommendations for our country’s economy to cross the middle-income trap under the new normal.