流域多尺度水文预报应用进展及适用性探讨

Application progress and applicability of multi-scale watershed hydrological forecasting

水文预报作为一项非工程措施,在水旱灾害防御、水资源综合利用,以及社会经济建设等领域发挥着越来越重要的支撑和保障作用。回顾了近年来国内外有关流域水文预报技术应用进展,梳理了流域多尺度水文预报的概念,系统性地阐述了多尺度水文预报应用中的关键技术和方法、面临的问题和不足以及未来的发展趋势,并重点探讨了流域水文预报中涉及的不确定性因素以及水文气象耦合方面的不匹配性等问题。最后,基于对流域水文预报适用性的分析,强调了在拓展流域不同预见期水文预报新业务实践中考虑水文预报适用性的重要性,提出了现状条件下拓展多尺度流域水文预报业务的指导性原则及建议。

As a non-engineering measure,hydrological forecasting plays a more and more important role in flood and drought prevention,comprehensive utilization of water resources and national economic construction.This paper reviews the research progress of watershed hydrological forecasting in recent years,combs the concept of watershed multi-scale hydrological forecasting,summarizes the key technologies,problems,developments of multi-scale hydrological forecasting,and focuses on the uncertainty factors and the mismatch of hydro-meteorological coupling in hydrological forecasting.Finally,based on the analysis of the applicability of watershed hydrological forecasting,this paper emphasizes the importance of considering the applicability of hydrological forecasting in operational practice of different forecasting period,and puts forward the guiding principles and suggestions for expanding multi-scale hydrological forecasting under current conditions.