巴西经济反弹仍面临较大脆弱性

Brazil's economic rebound still faces greater vulnerability

关键提示巴西经济面临疫情走势较大的不确定性,经济通胀、利率、财政赤字“三高”问题,以及产业空心化所带来的挑战。2021年第一季度,巴西GDP同比增长1.0%,环比增长1.2%。尽管尚未公布第二季度数据,但从3-5月的数据来看,同比增幅达9.7%,环比则下滑0.9%。从同比数据来看,巴西经济呈现出触底反弹的态势,巴西央行也将2021年经济增长预期提高到5.27%。但是,从环比数据来看,巴西经济恢复存在一定的脆弱性,疫情仍是影响经济反弹力度和持续时间的核心因素。

Since the first quarter,the Brazilian economy has shown some positive signs,such as the recovery of consumption,foreign trade and investment to varying degrees.But overall,most economic indicators are far from returning to pre-pandemic levels.In the next stage,Brazil's economic recovery faces many uncertainties.The most important contradiction is that the federal government not only has inefficient governance,but also has limited policy space under the long-term high epidemic situation.Therefore,although some indicators are obviously improving,it is not yet possible to conclude that"Brazil's economy has walked out of the crisis",and its economic recovery is still facing great vulnerability.