芜湖市土地利用时空变化及预测分析

Predictive Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Change in Land Use of Wuhu City Based on the Markov Model

土地利用变化是影响城市高质量发展的重要因素之一,因此探究芜湖市各时期的土地利用变化,对城市调整和优化用地布局具有重要的意义.基于地理信息系统空间分析技术,通过土地转移矩阵、动态度分析、Markov预测模型,对芜湖市2000、2010、2020年3期的土地利用动态变化特征以及未来土地利用变化进行论证分析,结果表明:(1)在2000—2020年间,人造地表的面积增长幅度最大,草地面积的增长速度最快,耕地和湿地的面积减少量最多;(2)研究区土地利用格局由于城市的建设发展在10年内会不断发生变化;(3)在2020—2030年间,人造地表面积会持续增加,主要是由林地、水体和耕地面积转化而来.研究结果可以进一步为芜湖市用地发展提供参考价值,有助于政府相关部门制定用地政策保护措施.

Land use change is one of the important factors affecting urban high-quality development,so it is of great significance to explore the land use change in different periods in Wuhu City for the adjustment and optimization of its layout of land use.Based on the spatial analysis technology of geographic information system,the land use dynamic change characteristics and future land use change of Wuhu City in 2000,2010 and 2020 are scientifically examined and analyzed by the combined use of land transfer matrix,dynamic degree analysis and Markov prediction model.The results show that:(1)from 2000 to 2020,artificial land surface grew by the largest scale,of which the growth rate of grassland area is the fastest,and the largest reduction is found to be in cultivated land and wetlands.(2)the land use pattern of the research area will undergo constant changes within 10 years due to the construction and development of the city.(3)from 2020 to 2030,the artificial surface area will continue to increase,which comes chiefly from the transformation of woodland,water and cultivated land.Research findings will have further reference value for land use development in Wuhu City,and help relevant government departments to formulate land use policies and protection measures.