基于Landsat8影像的蚌埠市淮上区土地利用变化及预测分析

Land Use Change and Prediction Analysis of Huaishang District,Bengbu City Based on Landsat 8 Image

以蚌埠市淮上区为研究区域,分别以2013年、2017年以及2020年的Landsat 8影像作为基础数据,利用监督分类中的三种方法对建筑用地、耕地、林地、水域、其他等5类分类样本进行分类研究。结果表明神经网络的分类方法精度最高,平均精度高达93.82%。通过土地利用动态变化分析,对研究区土地利用变化情况进行分析。分析结果表明:2013—2020年近7年来,研究区土地利用类型主要以建筑用地和耕地为主,其所占面积比相对较高,7年间建筑用地和林地的土地利用变化情况较为明显,建筑用地面积不断扩大,林地面积也在不断增加,未利用地的面积也逐渐被利用起来,而其他类型的土地面积变化并不是很显著。预测2025年蚌埠市淮上区建筑用地和耕地面积分别为147.6396 km2和215.1145 km2。建筑用地和耕地面积分别保持增加和略有减小的趋势。

Taking Huaishang District of Bengbu City as the research area,taking Landsat 8 images in 2013,2017 and 2020 as the basic data,this paper uses three methods in supervised classification to classify five types of classification samples,such as construction land,cultivated land,forest land,water area and others.The results show that the classification accuracy of neural network is the highest,and the average accuracy is as high as 93.82%.Through the analysis of land use dynamic change,the land use change in the study area is analyzed.The analysis results show that in the past seven years from 2013 to 2020,the land use types in the study area are mainly construction land and cultivated land,and their area ratio is relatively high.The land use changes of construction land and forest land are obvious in the past seven years.The area of construction land is expanding,the area of forest land is also increasing,and the area of unused land is gradually utilized,the change of other types of land area is not very significant.The predicted values of construction land and cultivated land area in Huaishang District of Bengbu City in 2025 are 147.6396 km2 and 215.1145 km2 respectively.The area of construction land and cultivated land kept increasing and slightly decreasing respectively.