全球班轮航运网络的国际贸易效应研究——基于联合国LSBCI矩阵数据的社会网络分析

The International Trade Effect of Global Liner Shipping Network——Based on the Social Network Analysis of UN LSBCI Matrix Data

本文基于2006—2020年LSBCI矩阵数据,采用社会网络分析方法实证研究了全球班轮航运网络的结构特征、对国际贸易的影响及其作用机制。研究表明:全球班轮航运网络密度偏低,具有"小世界"结构特性;网络结构由联系较弱的四大子群构成,并逐步向空间非均衡化的单中心大子群结构演进;节点个体特征存在明显差异,中国的点强度较高,而相对影响力和中介中心性仍偏低;全球班轮航运网络显著地促进了国际贸易增长,降低贸易成本和增强市场引力是其中的两大重要传导机制;全球班轮航运网络的贸易促进效应呈波动增长趋势,并且在"一带一路"沿线经济体、发展中经济体和较好港口环境等样本中该贸易促进效应明显更大。本文有助于把握全球班轮航运网络演变事实和厘清中国在班轮航运网络中的地位,并为重新解释国际贸易增长提供了新的方向。

Based on the matrix data of liner shipping bilateral connectivity index from year 2006 to 2020,this paper used social network analysis method to reveal global liner shipping network( GLSN) characteristics,and empirically examined the international trade effect and its mechanism of GLSN. The results show that the density of GLSN is still low,and has the structural features of"small world". The GLSN structure is composed of four major weakly linked subgroups,and gradually evolves towards the unbalanced spatial structure of single center with huge subgroups. There are obvious differences between the individual characteristics of nodes,China’s node strength is relatively high,but its relative influence and betweenness centrality are still low. The GLSN significantly promotes international trade growth,in which the reduction of trade costs and the enhancement of market gravity are two important mechanisms. The trade promoting effect of the GLSN shows a trend of fluctuating growth and it plays a greater role in samples among the Belt and Road economies,developing economies and ports with relative good environment. This paper is helpful to understand the evolution of GLSN,clarify China’s role in the network,and also provide new directions for reinterpreting international trade growth.