宫腔粘连患者妊娠预后的列线图预测模型建立

Establishment of a nomogram prediction model for pregnancy prognosis in patients with community uterine adhesions

目的分析建立宫腔粘连患者妊娠预后影响因素的列线图预测模型。方法选取2014年6月1日至2020年6月1日中国医科大学附属盛京医院登记的宫腔粘连患者158例作为研究对象,通过Cox回归分析其妊娠预后的影响因素,并建议相应的列线图预测模型。结果患者随着粘连程度的增加,患者的手术治疗的有效率、妊娠率和活产率都出现显著下降(P <0.05);Cox回归分析最终筛选出的变量为年龄、治疗效果、粘连性质和产次,建立的列线图预测模型C-index为0.719(95%CI:0.671~0.802)。结论建立了一个准确性和区分度较好的列线图预测模型,通过患者的年龄、治疗效果、粘连性质和产次因素,能较为准确的预测患者妊娠的概率。

Objective To analyze and establish a nomogram prediction model of the pregnancy prognosis of patients with intrauterine adhesions. Methods A total of 158 patients with uterine adhesions registered in the Shengjing Hospital Of China Medical University from June 1, 2014 to June 1, 2020 were selected as the research subjects. Cox regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of pregnancy prognosis, and the corresponding nomograms were proposed to predict model. Results With the increase of the adhesion degree, the effectiveness of surgical treatment, pregnancy rate and live birth rate of the patient decreased significantly(P < 0.05). The variables finally selected by Cox regression analysis were age, treatment effect, adhesion properties and the parity. The established nomogram prediction model C-index was 0.719(95%CI : 0.671 ~ 0.802). Conclusions A nomogram prediction model with good accuracy and differentiation was established. The model can accurately predict the probability of pregnancy through the patient’s age, treatment effect, adhesion nature and parity factors, which has very important application value.