灾害天气对日照市电力事故的影响研究

Study on impact of hazardous weather on electric power accident in Rizhao

利用雷雨、大风等灾害天气资料和电力事故历史数据资料,分析了电力事故发生的时空分布特征及其与雷雨、大风、日平均气温等天气要素之间的关系。进而利用事件概率回归(regression estimation of event probability,REEP)和Logistic回归分析方法,得到了日照市电力事故发生概率与雷雨、大风和日平均气温之间关系的预警模型。研究结果表明:1)雷雨、大风是造成日照市电力事故的重要气象因素。2)雷雨、大风和高温等灾害天气对电力事故的发生虽都有促成作用,但影响能力存在较大差距。3)两种回归分析模型对因子和变量之间关系均有较好的拟合效果,相较而言,REEP模型更为直观,Logistic回归分析方法更为客观,适用性更强。4)回归分析结果建立在客观资料基础上,回归模型具有准确性、实用性,可为电力事故预警发布系统提供理论和技术支持。

The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of electric power accidents and their relationship with weather factors such as thunderstorm,gale,and daily mean temperature are analyzed by using the weather data of thunderstorm and gale and historical data of electric power accidents.By using the method of REEP(regression estimation of event probability)and Logistic regression,an early warning model of the relationship between the probability of power accident and thunderstorm,gale,and daily mean temperature in Rizhao is obtained.The results are listed as follows.1)Thunderstorms and strong winds are important meteorological factors contributing to the power accidents in Rizhao.2)Although thunderstorms,strong winds,and high temperature have impacts on the occurrence of electric power accidents,there is a big gap between their influence ability.3)The two regression models both have good fitting effects.The REEP model is more intuitive,and the Logistic regression analysis method is more objective and more applicable.4)The results of the regression analysis are based on objective data and the regression model is accurate and practical,which can provide theoretical and technical support for the power accident early to warning system.