近十年重庆市城镇化进程下公路交通与环境排放的时空耦合分析

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Coupling of Highway Traffic and Environmental Emissions in the Urbanization Process of Chongqing in the Last Decade

基于重庆市38区县2007-2016年数据,本研究建立城镇化、公路交通、环境排放评价体系,按照熵权TOPSIS法计算系统得分,并利用耦合协调模型、全局莫兰指数探析三者协调性的时空演化及空间自相关性。结果显示,2007-2016年重庆市城镇化、公路交通、环境排放整体呈增长趋势,分别提高29.7%、36.01%、15.7%,各区县三大系统发展差异显著,空间不平衡现象明显;时间序列上,重庆市城镇化、公路交通、环境排放整体协调指数提高了22%,各区县从濒临失调过渡到良好协调阶段,协调性不断提高;空间演化上,三大系统协调性表现为"块-片"状、"高-低"值混合交叉分布,成团趋势明显;城镇化、公路交通、环境排放系统间的耦合协调不具有空间自相关性。主城地区的产业、经济、信息等要素向渝东北、渝东南的"溢出效应""涓滴效应"不显著,区(县)际差异化明显。

Based on the data of 38 districts and counties in Chongqing from 2007 to 2016,this study established an evaluation system for urbanization,road traffic,and environmental emissions,and calculated system scores according to the entropy weight TOPSIS method,and used the coupling coordination model and the global Moran index to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution and spatial autocorrelation of the three coordination.The results show that from 2007 to 2016,Chongqing’s urbanization,road traffic,and environmental emissions showed an overall increasing trend,increasing by 29.7%,36.01%,and 15.7% respectively,there are significant differences in the development of the three major systems in various districts and counties,and the phenomenon of spatial imbalance is obvious;in the time series,the overall coordination index of Chongqing’s urbanization,road traffic,and environmental emissions increased by 22%,the districts and counties have transitioned from being on the verge of maladjustment to a stage of good coordination,and their coordination has continued to improve;in terms of spatial evolution,the coordination of the three major systems is manifested as a "block-slice" and "high-low" value mixed and cross-distributed,and the tendency of clustering is obvious;the coupling and coordination among urbanization,road traffic,and environmental emission systems do not have spatial autocorrelation.The "spillover effect" and "trickle drop effect" of the industry,economy,information and other factors in the main city area to the northeast and southeast of Chongqing are not significant,and the differences between districts (counties) are obvious.