国际原油市场供给侧变局与油价趋势研判

Study and Judgement of International Oil Market Supply Side Change and Oil Price Trend

“OPEC+”联合增产协议标志着国际原油市场供给侧导向出现重大调整,国际油价供需两侧盘面正在面临结构性转换,“沙特+阿联酋”的“双支点”格局在本轮协议谈判博弈中初现轮廓。这一新格局的塑造既是OPEC组织内部经济竞争与政治分歧的客观必然,也是美国外部施压与离岸平衡的操作使然,其直接后果是OPEC组织凝聚力与影响力的进一步衰退,其根本推动是美国在新一个10年正在酝酿的战略调整。国际原油市场供给侧结构性变局将深刻作用于国际油价,推动国际油价短暂触顶后理性回归价格均值。

OPEC+joint production increase agreement marks an emerging major adjustment in the orientation of international oil market supply side,and both sides of supply and demand affecting international oil price are facing a structural shift,in which the"Double Fulcrum"pattern of"Saudi Arabia+UAE"has emerged in this round of agreement negotiation.The shaping of the new pattern is not only the objective necessity of economic competition and political differences within OPEC organization,but also caused by US operations of external pressure and offshore balancing.Its direct consequence is the further recession of OPEC organization’s cohesion and influence,and the fundamental driving force is US strategic readjustment brewing in the new decade.Structural change of international oil market supply side will have profound impact on international oil price,promoting international oil price to return to a rational mean price from the recent high.