数字金融发展如何影响家庭“加杠杆”?——动态效应、异质性特征与机制检验

How does the Development of Digital Finance Affect Households“Increasing Leverage”?Dynamic Effects,Heterogeneity Characteristics and Mechanism Testing

随着我国家庭部门杠杆率的快速攀升,家庭部门"加杠杆"成为学术界和业界共同关注的焦点之一。文章将中国数字普惠金融指数与中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据相结合,从数字金融发展的角度,给出了一个近年来家庭杠杆率上升的解释,并探讨了其中的作用机制以及潜在影响。研究发现,数字金融发展能够显著推动家庭杠杆率的攀升,并对家庭杠杆率的攀升具有长期影响。从数量上看,数字金融发展每增加1%,相应杠杆率将上升0.0058%。在考虑了潜在的内生性后,文章所得结论依然成立。对该影响在不同群体中可能存在的异质性进行分析,结果发现,数字金融发展对家庭杠杆率的提升在有房贷、消费贷和经营贷家庭、中西部地区家庭、25-55岁家庭、农村地区家庭更为明显。机制分析表明,数字金融发展通过提高金融可得性、强化支付便利性和降低家庭面临的不确定性而对家庭杠杆率产生积极影响。文章研究结论对制定"数字中国"战略、理解结构性去杠杆中"守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线"等方面提供了有益思考。

With the rapid increase in the leverage ratio of the household sector in my country,the"increasing leverage"of the household sector has become one of the common focuses of the academic community and the industry.This article combines the China Digital Financial Inclusion Index with the China Household Tracking Survey(CFPS)data.From the perspective of the development of digital finance,this article gives an explanation for the increase in household leverage in recent years,and discusses its mechanism and potential impact.The study found that the development of digital finance can significantly promote the rise of household leverage and has a long-term impact on the rise of household leverage.In terms of quantity,every increase in the development of digital finance will increase the household leverage ratio by 0.0058%.After considering the potential endogeneity,the conclusions obtained in this paper are still valid.The analysis of the possible heterogeneity of the impact among different groups revealed that the development of digital finance has increased household leverage in households with mortgages,consumer loans and business loans,households in the central and western regions,households aged 25-55,Families in rural areas are more pronounced.Mechanism analysis shows that the development of digital finance has a positive impact on household leverage by improving financial availability,strengthening payment convenience,and reducing the uncertainty faced by households.The research conclusions of this article provide useful thinking on the formulation of a"digital China"strategy and understanding of"holding the bottom line against systemic financial risks"in structural deleveraging.