铁路的长期经济影响:基于中国1980年铁路线的研究

The Long-term Economic Impact of Railway:Based on the Study of China’s Railway Lines in 1980

铁路与经济发展之间的关系得到了大量的研究,但均集中于短期经济影响,且很少关注铁路在发展中国家从传统农业社会向工业社会转型过程中的作用。文章使用中国1980年的铁路线研究了铁路在中国转型期对县域经济发展的长期影响。研究发现,铁路开通对县域经济发展具有显著的长期促进作用,具体来说,以2000年数据为例,1980年铁路线对以GDP为衡量指标的经济发展的年均促进作用为1.16%。排除了无法观测因素和溢出效应、控制县级异质性、以及使用"三线建设"作为外生冲击的结果均支持上述结论。机制检验发现,铁路促进了县域层面的工业化,同时还显著增加了县域层面的外商投资和出口,进而促进了经济发展。本文的研究不仅提供了铁路的长期经济影响的经验证据,同时也揭示了以铁路为代表的基础设施对经济转型的作用,从而有助于理解中国经济增长奇迹,也为其他发展中国家转型提供了借鉴。

Since the reform and opening up,China’s real GDP has maintained an average annual growth rate of 9.5%in nearly 40 years,much higher than the world level in the same period,realizing the transformation from a traditional agricultural society to an industrial one.What is the driving force behind China’s rapid economic growth for many years?This paper attempts to answer the above questions from the perspective of the long-term impact of railway on economic development.Using China’s railway linein 1980 and county-level data,the research found that the railway has a significant effect on the long-term development of county economy,which is not only statistically significant,but also economically significant.Specifically,using 2000 data as an example,the results show that the average effect of railways on economic development as measured by GDP is about 1.16%a year.The results of excluding the problem of missing variables,using the railway line of 1962,controlling the heterogeneity at the county level,using the"The Third-Front Movement"as the exogenous impact to solve the endogenicity,and excluding the spillover effect were consistent with the baseline results.The mechanism inspection found that the railway promoted the industrialization of the county,attracted more foreign investment and had more exports,all of which significantly promoted the economic development.Therefore,the results of this paper not only verify the viewpoint of Rostow(1962),but also illustrate the role of railway and other transportation infrastructure construction in China’s transformation process.The conclusion of this paper not only confirm the role of railway and other infrastructure in China’s transformation process,but also provide a reference for the economic transformation of other developing countries in the world.