地方政府债务的宏观经济效应——基于信贷错配视角的研究

The Macroeconomic Effects of Local Government Debt——A Credit Misallocation Perspective

本文构建了包含国有和民营企业、金融部门以及地方政府的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型来量化分析地方政府债务累积对信贷配置和宏观经济的影响。模型分析发现:(1)地方政府债务上升挤出了企业信贷资源,加强了信贷的国企偏好,降低了全要素生产率;(2)地方政府债务在2009—2018年间使得国企/民企信贷比平均上升24.2%,TFP下降1.7%,产出下降7.2%;(3)金融供给侧改革、打破国企"刚兑"等政策能够缓解地方政府债务累积的信贷错配效应。最后,本文实证检验了模型的机制与结论。

A New Keynesian DSGE model with state-owned and private-owned firms, financial sectors and local governments is developed to analyze the impact of local government debt accumulation on credit allocations and economic dynamics. Analysis reveals that:(1) A rise of local government debt crowds out firm credits, more for private-owned firms, and reduces the TFP;(2) The local government debt growth between 2009—2018, on average, caused the credit ratio of state-owned/private-owned firms to increase 24.2%, the TFP to fall 1.7%, and the output to decline 7.2%;(3) Counterfactual policy analysis shows that financial sector reform, state-owned enterprises reform can alleviate the distortional effects on credit allocation. Finally, the mechanism and predictions of the model are empirically tested.