数字货币会成为金融犯罪放大器吗——基于地缘政治风险对数字货币的影响研究

Cryptocurrency Being an Amplifier of Financial Crime?——Based on the Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Cryptocurrency

地缘政治风险加剧导致的资本外逃、恐怖融资等行为,会增加非法交易者对具备交易匿名和便捷属性的数字货币需求,使其成为放大金融犯罪的新型工具。本文通过采用ARDL和NARDL模型,实证分析地缘政治风险指数对5种数字货币收益率的影响。研究表明,地缘政治风险指数对数字货币收益率产生显著的正向影响;地缘政治风险指数升高时数字货币收益率会随匿名性的提升而增大;短期内,地缘政治风险对数字货币产生的影响存在非对称性效应。进一步指出,只有严控数字货币与法币的跨国兑换渠道,加大数字货币跨境交易打击力度,才能有效防范数字货币金融犯罪风险,维护金融安全。

The anonymity and convenient transaction attributes of cryptocurrencies make it a natural risk of financial crime,and the external uncertainty caused by geopolitical risks will increase the possibility of cryptocurrency becoming a financial crime tool and magnifying the scale of financial crime.Based on the mechanism analysis of geopolitical risk on cryptocurrency,with Granger causality test,ARDL and NARDL models,this paper empirically tests the influence of geopolitical risks index on the daily return rate of 5 different types of cryptocurrencies.The results show that,under the premise of wide recognition by the market,the influence of geopolitical risks on cryptocurrencies depends on the attributes of cryptocurrencies,among which,anonymity and transaction convenience are greater than their market value attributes,indicating the possibility of cryptocurrencies with anonymity has been used in financial crimes.Finally,some suggestions on the supervision of cryptocurrency are put forward according to the above analysis.