基于双对数线性模型的广西国内旅游需求影响因素分析

An Analysis of Influencing Factors on Domestic Tourism Demand for Guangxi Based on Double Logarithmic Linear Model

从国内旅游接待数量、居民可支配收入和交通三方面对广西国内旅游进行描述性分析,然后选取2000—2018年全国居民人均可支配收入、全国人均GDP、区内旅客周转量、广西旅行社数量和广西消费者物价指数为变量,建立关于广西国内旅游需求的双对数线性模型,再采用EViews8.0软件对模型进行求解和检验.研究结果表明,全国居民人均可支配收入、广西旅行社数量和2003年的非典疫情对广西国内旅游需求的影响非常显著.

We conduct a descriptive analysis on domestic tourism demand for Guangxi from domestic tourists’number,residents’disposable income and transportation of Guangxi.Then we choose the annual data from 2000 to 2018 of national per capita disposable income,national per capita GDP,passengers’turnover volume,travel agencies’quantity and consumers’price index in Guangxi as variables to construct a double logarithmic model for Guangxi domestic tourism demand.We solve and test this model by EViews8.0.Our research results show that,national per capita disposable income,the number of travel agencies in Guangxi and the SARS epidemic in 2003 have significant effects on the domestic tourism demand for Guangxi.