2020—2021年东盟国家经济形势的分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of Economic Situation of ASEAN Countries in 2020-2021

随着COVID-19疫情的全球扩散,东盟国家经济增速急转直下,各国官方和国际经济组织均大幅下调2020年经济增长预期。由于各国实施防控疫情的举措,东盟国家的经济增长动力减弱,国内消费和投资下滑,生产和出口骤降,服务业遭受重创,失业和民生问题凸显。为应对全球疫情扩散对经济的影响,东盟国家将抗击疫情列为国家议程的头等大事,全力以赴抗疫情、稳经济、稳社会和稳民生。各国纷纷推出经济援助配套计划,调整宏观经济政策工具,加大财政支出,降低基准利率,稳定汇率和金融市场,援助中小企业和弱势群体,加强区域合作共同应对疫情的影响。“后疫情时期”,东盟国家经济增长仍存在较大的不确定性,将取决于全球疫情的消退尤其是重要贸易伙伴国的经济复苏。

With the global spread of COVID-19,the economic growth rate of ASEAN countries has plummeted,and officials around the world and international economic organizations have slashed their economic growth forecasts for 2020.Due to the preventive and control measures taken by various countries for the coronavirus,the economic growth momentum of ASEAN countries has weakened,domestic consumption and investment have declined,production and export have plummeted,the service sector has suffered heavy losses,and unemployment and livelihood problems have become more prominent.To cope with the impact of the spread of the global pandemic on economy,ASEAN countries have placed the fight against the pandemic at the top of their national agenda,and spared no effort to fight the pandemic and stabilize the economy,society and people's livelihood.Countries have rolled out supporting economic assistance programs,adjusted macroeconomic policy tools,increased fiscal spending,lowered benchmark interest rates,stabilized exchange rates and financial markets,provided assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises and vulnerable groups,and strengthened regional cooperation to jointly cope with the impact of the pandemic.In the post-pandemic period,the great uncertaintiesof the economic growth of ASEAN countries will depend on the recovery of the global pandemic,especially of important trading partners.