政策不确定环境下的资本结构动态决策

Capital Structure Dynamic Decision-Making Under Environment of Policy Uncertainty

不确定性是中国经济转型时期的典型特征,探讨不确定环境下的资本结构动态调整对深入认识和理解企业融资决策以及积极推进“去杠杆”等供给侧结构性改革具有重要意义。本文基于宏观和地区双重视角系统考察政策不确定性对资本结构动态决策的影响。结果表明:宏观政策不确定性对资本结构调整速度具有显著的正向影响,而地区政策不确定性的影响则相反,且两者均在不同负债水平上呈现出明显的不对称性;双重政策不确定性之间具有显著的交互作用,地区政策不确定性显著抑制了宏观政策不确定性对资本结构调整的影响;双重政策不确定性对资本结构调整速度的影响会随着地区市场化、产权改革和对外开放等改革的逐步推进而出现弱化。本文的研究结论对科学实施“去杠杆”等供给侧结构性改革和防控化解重大金融风险具有借鉴意义。

This paper divides the policy uncertainty into macro-policy uncertainty and re-gional policy uncertainty,and uses the data of A-share listed companies from 1998 to 2015 to investigate the impacts of double policy uncertainty on the dynamic decision-making of corporate capital structure.The main results show that,the impact of policy uncertainty on the capital structure dynamic adjustment depends on the types of policy uncertainty and the level of corporate leverage:macro-policy uncertainty has a significant positive effect on the speed of capital structure adjustment,and it shows obvious asymmetry between different levels of liabilities,but the impact of regional policy uncertainty is just the opposite;double policy uncertainty has a significant interaction effect,regional policy uncertainty has a negative impact on the effects of macro-policy uncertainty on speed of capital structure adjustment;as the transformation and reform progresses gradually,the impact of double policy uncertainty on the speed of capital structure adjustment has been significantly weakened.