健康扶贫背景下居民医疗保健支出的预测分析——以安徽省阜阳市为例

Prediction and analysis of residents medical care expenditureunder health poverty alleviation-Taking Fuyang in Anhui Province as an example

为探究健康扶贫背景下医疗保障水平的发展情况,对居民医疗保健支出进行了预测分析。选取2014—2019年安徽省阜阳市统计年鉴数据进行实证研究,首先,从经济、人口、医疗保健环境和社会保障等方面对影响安徽省阜阳市医疗保健支出的因素进行灰色关联分析;其次,在灰色关联分析基础上筛选出关联度大于0.75的主要因子,建立灰色预测模型GM(1,N);最后,对模型精度检验并进行预测分析。研究结果表明,与阜阳市医疗保健支出关联度从大到小的影响因素依次是每万人医生数、人均可支配收入、总人口文盲率等;经检验,GM(1,5)模型的平均相对误差为5.24%,模型的精度较高,并预测出未来5年医疗保健支出将以每年约7%的增长率增长。研究结果可为阜阳市医疗保健改革策略提供理论依据,为健康扶贫机制研究提供一定的参考与支撑。

In order to explore the development of medical security level under health poverty alleviation,the residents medical care expenditure was predicted and analyzed.This paper selected the statistical yearbook data of Fuyang,Anhui Province from 2014 to 2019 for an empirical research.Firstly,a grey relational analysis was conducted on the factors affecting the medical care expenditure of Fuyang from the aspects of economy,population,medical care environment and social security.Secondly,on the basis of grey relational analysis,the main factors with correlation degree greater than 0.75 were screened out to establish the grey prediction GM(1,N)model.Finally,the accuracy of the model was tested and predicted.The results show that the influencing factors from big to small are the number of doctors per 10000 people,per capita disposable income,illiteracy rate of the total population,respectively.Upon examination,the average relative error of the GM(1,5)model is 5.24%,and the accuracy of the model proves to be fairly high.It is predicted that the medical care expenditure will increase at an annual rate of approximately 7%in the next five years.The results can provide a theoretical basis for the research of Fuyang health care reform strategy,and give some reference and support for the health poverty alleviation mechanism.