全球加速能源转型背景下的结构性风险与应对策略

Structural risks and countermeasures of accelerating global energy transition

重视防范能源转型背景下的结构性风险,是未来相当长时期内的重要任务。新一轮能源危机引发市场和价格周期性震荡、能源结构性供需错配、欧美发达国家货币大放水,对全球经济复苏的负面影响不容忽视。加速绿色低碳转型将为全球经济复苏注入新动能,但也会导致能源矿产资源供需错配、碳税政策成为国际贸易的新壁垒、埋下债务金融危机隐患等问题。中国要坚定不移地推动能源转型,高度关注转型过程中的安全风险。发挥好传统化石能源的压舱石作用,统筹利用好国内外两种资源、两个市场,加快建设韧性、安全的能源体系,打通新能源技术创新链和产业链,加强“一带一路”能源绿色低碳转型合作,做好传统能源生产基地的平稳转型。

It will be an important task for a long time in the future to pay attention to preventing structural risks under the background of energy transition.The new round of energy crisis has triggered periodic market and price shocks,structural mismatch between energy supply and demand,and massive monetary easing by developed countries in Europe and the US.Its negative impact on global economic recovery cannot be ignored.Accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation will inject new momentum into the global economic recovery,but it will also lead to the mismatch between the supply and demand of energy and mineral resources,and the potential debt and financial crisis.The carbon tax policies will become a new barrier to international trade.China should unswervingly promote the energy transition;on the other hand,it should pay close attention to the security risks in the transition process.We should give full play to the role of traditional fossil energy as the anchor,make good use of both domestic and foreign resources and markets,speed up the building of a resilient and secure energy system,open up innovation chains and industrial chains of new energy technologies,strengthen cooperation on green and low-carbon energy transformation under the Belt and Road Initiative,and ensure the smooth transformation of traditional energy production bases.