近10年全球油气重大发现及趋势分析

Major global oil and gas discoveries in the past decade and their trend outlook

油价长期低位震荡、新冠肺炎疫情持续和能源转型等都深刻影响着全球油气勘探开发行业。近年来,全球油气发现数量和勘探新增储量均呈大幅下降趋势,新发现集中分布在大西洋两岸和波斯湾地区,伊拉克Faihaa油田、沙特阿拉伯Al Hasa页岩气田、美国Tulimaniq油田、塞内加尔Yakaar 1气田、圭亚那Yellowtail 1油气田等一批大型油气田相继被发现,天然气新增发现储量占比超过石油,海上发现占比超过60%,国家石油公司是新发现的主要贡献者。未来,中东和拉美将成为油气勘探生产主力区,全球油气上游或将迎来新一轮油气资产组合。当前部分大石油公司大幅削减勘探投资、全球油气新增发现储量减少、能源转型等不确定性因素,将直接导致资源接替不足、未来阶段性供应紧张等风险加剧。

Long-term fluctuations in oil prices,the COVID-19 epidemic,and the energy transition have profoundly affected the global oil and gas exploration and development industry.In recent years,the number of global oil and gas discoveries and new reserves have shown a sharp decline,and they are concentrated on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and the Persian Gulf region.A number of large oil and gas fields have been discovered,including Faihaa in Iraq,Al Hasa in Saudi Arabia,Tulimaniq in America,Yakaar 1 in Senegal,Yellowtail 1 in Guyana.The proportion of newly discovered natural gas reserves exceeds that of oil,and the proportion of offshore discoveries exceeds 60%.National Oil Corporations are the main contributors to new discoveries.It is foreseeable that the Middle East and Latin America will become the main areas of oil and gas exploration and production in the future,and the global upstream oil and gas may usher in a new round of oil and gas asset portfolios.However,at present,some oil companies drastically reduce investment in exploration,the global oil and gas discoveries decrease,and energy is transforming.These uncertainties will lead to the increased risks of insufficient replacement of resource reserves and periodic supply constraints in the future.