全球丁二烯供需分析与预测

Analysis and forecast of global 1,3-butadiene supply and demand

近年来,全球丁二烯供应趋向宽松,消费增速低于产能增速。2020年,全球丁二烯产能1638.2×10^(4) t/a、产量和消费量均为1084.2×10^(4) t,产能同比增长4.9%,产量和消费量同比下降均为7.6%。全球丁二烯产能主要集中在东北亚、西欧和北美地区,消费排名靠前的地区主要是东北亚、西欧和北美地区,产业重心逐步向东北亚地区转移。受乙烯产能快速扩张带动,中国丁二烯市场供应趋向宽松。预计“十四五”期间,中国乙烯装置将迎来新一轮投产高峰,副产C_(4)抽提丁二烯装置产能也将迎来大爆发,丁二烯市场供需将进一步宽松,下游合成橡胶需求放缓,企业利润空间缩窄。

The 1,3 butadiene growth rate of consumption has been lower than that of production capacity in recent years.In 2020,1,3-butadiene production capacity was 16.382 million tons per year,output was 10.842 million tons,and the consumption was 10.842 million tons,with the growth rate of 4.9%,–7.6%and–7.6%respectively compared with that in 2019.The global 1,3-butadiene production capacity is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia,Western Europe and North America region,the top consumption regions are Northeast Asia,Western Europe and North America,and the industrial center is gradually shifting to Northeast Asia.Driven by the rapid expansion of ethylene production capacity,the supply and demand of 1,3-butadiene market tends to loosen in China.It is estimated that during the 14^(th) Five-Year Plan period,China’s ethylene plants will usher in a new round of peak production,and the capacity of 1,3-butadiene plant will also usher in a big explosion,1,3-butadiene market will supply abundantly,however,the downstream synthetic rubber demand will be decreased,and the enterprises profit will reduce.