基于无标度网络的中国城市房价分布演化机制研究

Research on the Evolution Mechanism of Urban Housing Price Distribution of China Based on BA Scale-free network

中国房价越高的城市数量越少,基于该金字塔式结构分布的特征事实,猜测其Pareto累计分布近似符合幂律分布并得以验证。以城市化趋势下的投资行为聚集性为理论依据,运用无标度网络方法构建城市住房价格分布的演化机制模型,在定性上解释了城市房价金字塔演化规律。随着房价中位段城市占比升高,实证与理论的拟合效果更好,与城镇化进程的稳步推进相符。在市场经济规律作用下,城市房价会自发演化形成金字塔式的分布结构。金融周期和新冠疫情导致的短期市场波动并不会从根本上影响城市化发展规律,应特别关注对新兴大型城市的培育,适度分散超级城市的职能。

The higher the housing price,the less the number of cities.Based on the pyramidshape structure distribution,it has been speculated then verified that the Pareto cumulative distribution of urban housing prices of China is approximately obeys the power law.On considering the reality of China's urbanization process,the evolution mechanism model of urban housing price distribution is constructed by BA scale-free nerwork theory,which explains the evolution rules of urbanization gathering real estate investment,thus forming the price pyramid.While the proportion of cities in the median housing price grows larger,the simulation fits better,to provide theoretical evidence for the achievements of urbanization in China.Following the law of market-orient economy,the pyramid-shape structure has naturally evolved.Financial cycles and COVID-19will not fundamentally affect the law of urbanization development.It should be focused on the cultivation of emerging large cities,so as to decentralize the functions of mega cities.