马克思主义的趋势分析法及其运用的着力点

Marxist Trend Analysis Method and Its Application

趋势分析法就是通过把握事物发展的方向、客观走势,正确预判未来的方法。趋势分析法有三个要求:一是能够抓住历史发展的潮流,顺应历史变化制订战略策略;二是能够抓住社会发展的主要矛盾,从主要矛盾中寻求解决问题的途径;三是能够抓住实现未来发展的主体力量,依靠主体力量实现未来。任何一个社会都有自己的基本矛盾,也就是贯穿一个社会形态始终的基本矛盾,而这个基本矛盾往往决定着一个社会形态发展的大趋势。要把握社会发展趋势,主要就是要抓阶级关系的变化,从阶级关系的变动中把握发展变化的趋势;"从最顽强的事实出发",找出未来的变动走向;从否定性事实出发,在分析批判旧世界中发现新世界;抓时代潮流的发展变化,从浩浩荡荡的世界大潮中发现未来。

The trend analysis method is a method to correctly predict the future by grasping the development direction and objective trend of things.The trend analysis method has three requirements:First,be able to grasp the trend of historical development and formulate strategic strategies in accordance with historical changes;second,be able to grasp the main contradictions of social development,and seek solutions to problems from the main contradictions;third,Capable of grasping the main power to realize future development,and relying on main power to realize the future.Any society has its own basic contradictions,that is,throughout a social form.This basic contradiction often determines the general trend of the development of a social form.Grasp the changes in class relations and grasp the trends of development and changes from the changes in class relations.