东道国负面舆论偏向与企业OFDI——基于东道国主流新闻媒体的情感量化分析

Negative public opinion in host country and enterprise OFDI:sentiment quantitative analysis based on the mainstream news media in the host country

近年来,中国企业"走出去"频遭国际负面舆论的困扰,如何有效破解国际负面舆论的不利影响成为中国企业高质量"走出去"亟待解决的重大问题。基于网络爬虫技术,批量抓取2010—2018年中国主要投资伙伴国主流新闻媒体的50多万份涉华报道,量化和构建涉华舆论偏向指数,实证研究东道国负面舆论对中国企业OFDI的影响。研究表明:(1)东道国负面舆论偏向显著抑制了中国企业OFDI,但这种抑制作用仅在当期显著。(2)负面舆论偏向对技术密集型企业OFDI的抑制作用并不显著,但显著抑制了资源能源类、环境敏感类企业和国有企业OFDI。(3)东道国政府换届并没有加剧负面舆论偏向对企业OFDI的抑制作用,双边投资协定的签订并没有改善负面舆论偏向对企业OFDI的不利影响,而企业社会责任感提升、双边经济互补性增强以及高层互访频率增加能够有效缓解负面舆论偏向对企业OFDI的抑制作用。研究结果为企业识别、规避和减轻东道国负面舆论偏向的不利影响,推动企业高质量"走出去"提供了有益启示。

In recent years,Chinese enterprises"going out"has frequently been plagued by negative international public opinion.Effectively countering the adverse effects of negative international public opinion has become a major problem to be solved related to Chinese enterprises"going out"with high quality.This paper uses web crawler technology to gather more than 500000 China-related reports from the mainstream news media of China’s major investment partner countries from 2010 to 2018,quantifies and constructs a China-related index of public opinion bias,and empirically studies the effect of a host country’s negative public opinion on Chinese enterprises’OFDI.The results show that:(1)Negative public opinion within the host country has significantly inhibited the OFDI of Chinese enterprises;however,this inhibitory effect is only significant in the current period.(2)The negative public opinion has no inhibitory effect on technology-intensive enterprises’OFDI,but does have significant inhibitory effect on resources and energy,environment-sensitive,and state-owned enterprises’OFDI.(3)The change of government of the host country does not aggravate the negative public opinion that inhibits enterprises’OFDI.Likewise,the signing of a bilateral investment agreement does not improve the negative impact of negative public opinion on enterprises’OFDI.However,the promotion of enterprises’social responsibility,the enhancement of bilateral economic complementarity,and the increase in the frequency of high-level visits,can all effectively alleviate the inhibitory effect of negative public opinion on enterprises’OFDI.The research results provide useful enlightenment to enable enterprises to identify,avoid,and mitigate the adverse effects of negative public opinion in host countries,and promote enterprises to"going out"with high quality.