2000—2017年山地城市百色气候承载力定量评价

Quantitative assessment on climate carrying capacity of a mountainous city from 2000 to 2017:a case study of Baise city

利用2000—2017年百色市气象资料和城市社会经济发展数据,构建以气候天然容量、极端气候事件压力、城市气候压力和城市协调发展能力四个评价指数组成的城市气候承载力综合函数,客观定量评价广西西部山地城市百色2000—2017年的气候承载力变化。结果表明:21世纪以来,百色市的气候承载力整体呈现一种波动上升的状态,反映百色的城市建设与气候之间的协调力增强,城市建设发展仍有较大的气候承载空间。百色城市气候承载力对极端天气气候事件,特别是干旱事件较为敏感;人为影响因子对气候承载力具有重要影响。提升气候承载力和应对气候变化能力应从提高防御自然灾害能力和城市协调发展能力、降低城市气候压力着手,建立可持续发展的城市气候生态系统。

Based on the meteorological and urban socio-economic data from 2000 to 2017,a comprehensive function of urban climate carrying capacity was constructed to evaluate objectively and quantitatively the variation of climate carrying capacity of Baise city,a mountainous city in Western Guangxi.The function consists of four evaluation indexes,namely,climate natural capacity,extreme climate event,urban climate pressure,and urban coordinated ability.The results show that since the 21st century,the overall climate carrying capacity of Baise city has shown an increasing trend with fluctuation,which reflecting an enhanced coordination ability between urban construction and climate,and there is still a large climate carrying space for urban construction.Climate carrying capacity is sensitive to extreme climate events,especially extreme drought.Human impact factors have important influences on climate carrying capacity.Improving climate carrying capacity and coping with climate change should improve the ability to defend against natural disasters and the ability of urban coordinated development,as well as reducing urban climate pressure so that a sustainable urban climate ecosystem in Baise city can be built.